Instability
in North
Kivu
Fears of another Congo war
Though a peace agreement has been in place in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since 2003, insecurity in the eastern part of the country remains rife. Armed factions in the Kivu provinces have continued to prey on local populations, to oppose army reintegration and to engage in armed confrontations. The Kivus – and North Kivu in particular – have been engulfed in a new wave of violence and human- rights abuses since November 2006, fuelling a humanitarian crisis. Since late 2006, 375,000 people have been newly displaced in North Kivu, bringing the total number of displaced persons in the province to 800,000. Thousands more have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. The escalation of violence has raised the spectre of a new regional war.
The conflicts which have afflicted the DRC since 1996 resulted from internal rebellions, military interventions by Rwanda and Uganda, ethnic tensions, and rivalries for control over the country's rich natural resources. North Kivu has been particularly prone to conflicts, some predating the regional wars of 1996 and 1998. Following successive waves of migration from Rwanda since the late eighteenth century, tensions developed between the 'native' Nande, Hunde, Tembo and Nyanga tribes and the Rwandophone populations (referred to in North Kivu as Banyarwanda). Competition for land and political power was exacerbated by the political manipulation of intercommunal rivalries. Major episodes of inter-communal violence came shortly after independence in 1960 and again in 1993. The 1994 genocide in Rwanda, the arrival of over one million Rwandan Hutu refugees in eastern DRC following the victory of the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front and the ensuing military intervention in the DRC not only led to increased tensions between the 'native' tribes and the Rwandophone-Congolese, but also caused a rift between Hutu and Tutsi Banyarwanda.
The conflicts in the province were temporarily subdued by the peace agreement signed in March 2003, which resulted from the Inter Congolese
Dialogue held in Sun City, South Africa, from February to April 2002, and by the subsequent political transition. But ethnic tensions have continued to simmer. Since late 2006, North Kivu has been sliding back to war, largely as a result of the government's failure to disarm the various factions in North Kivu, and because of manipulation of ethnicity for political purposes.
Post-2003 manoeuvres
After the peace agreement the situation in the Kivus remained fragile. Members of the former Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD-Goma) rebel group wished to maintain its political, economic and military control over the region. Some elements refused to take up their posts in the newly unified army. Following Kinshasa's appointment in May 2004 of a military regional commander loyal to President Joseph Kabila, fighting broke out in Bukavu, South Kivu, where a 1,000-strong RCD-Goma force staged a mutiny. Led by their commander Laurent Nkunda, who claimed that the army was carrying out a genocidal attack against Tutsi populations in Bukavu, the RCDGoma troops entered the town on 2 June and seized control of it for several days. International intervention contained the crisis, forcing RCD-Goma Commander Jules Mutebutsi, who had instigated the insurrection, and about 300 of his men to flee to Rwanda, while Nkunda withdrew to Masisi and Rutshuru territories in North Kivu.
Low-level violence persisted in the region throughout 2004–06. Nkunda became increasingly politically active locally through his movement, the National Congress for the Defence of the People. The peace process remained on track until Nkunda launched a military offensive in November 2006 by seizing the town of Sake. The United
Nations Mission in the DRC (MONUC) launched a military ground-air offensive and halted Nkunda's progress towards Goma, killing 200–400 of his men.
These events took place against the background of shifts in the balance of power in North Kivu caused by the process of political transition. Nkunda, who claims to be fighting to protect the DRC's Tutsi communities, is calling for the disarmament of the Hutu Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) and the return of 45,000 Congolese refugees residing in Rwandan refugee camps. The erosion of RCD-Goma's power since 2004, and its adhesion to the political transition process, allowed Nkunda to present himself as the sole remaining protector of the Tutsis. Moreover, the 2006 elections shifted the balance of power in North Kivu in favour of the Nande, Hunde and Nyanga communities which had allied themselves to Kabila. This aroused fears among the Tutsis of reprisals for human-rights abuses committed by RCD-Goma during the war. Prominent Tutsi businessmen, who have supported Nkunda financially, feared losing their economic assets and being politically marginalised. Together with hardliners from the former RCD-Goma movement, they put considerable pressure on Nkunda to act to safeguard their interests and security.
Army integration fails
Under Rwandan mediation, the Congolese government and Nkunda signed an agreement on 4 January 2007 for an immediate ceasefire and the integration of Nkunda's forces into the army through a process of mixage. Nkunda's brigades were not to be disbanded, but integrated with units of the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) into mixed brigades. These remained deployed in North Kivu,
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and Nkunda's units stayed under the control of his commanders. However, the situation rapidly deteriorated. In April, the brigades launched military offensives against the FDLR along the Rutshuru– Nyamilima, Mweso–Nyanzale and Ngungu–Katoyi axes. Though the success of these operations was limited, they had a dramatic impact on North Kivu, provoking population displacements and reviving ethnic tensions. The brigades used brutal tactics and indiscriminately attacked civilians suspected of supporting the FDLR. MONUC later found 12 mass graves at three camps abandoned by the mixed brigades. The violence revived anti-Tutsi sentiment and led anti-Tutsi militias to re-arm, in particular local Mai Mai groups (self-defence forces of ethnic- minority groups) which withdrew from the army integration process, regrouped under the umbrella of the Coalition of Resistant Congolese Patriots and allied themselves to the FDLR. The rise in ethnic tensions was not limited to North Kivu: in early August, MONUC soldiers, along with personnel of the UN's refugee agency (UNHCR) and several NGOs, were attacked by residents in Moba in Katanga province after rumours had spread that MONUC and UNHCR were planning to repatriate Congolese Tutsi refugees.
The mixage process was met with scepticism from the start. Believed to have been no more than a gentleman's agreement, it was unclear whether the deal was limited to the technical process of army integration or whether it also contained political provisions. Doubts were raised as to whether both Nkunda and the government were genuinely committed to it. The process offered Nkunda the opportunity to strengthen his authority in North Kivu, legitimise his operations against the FDLR and replenish his ranks – civilians were reportedly enlisted by force. The increased insecurity has strengthened perceptions of Nkunda as the ultimate protector of the Tutsis in the DRC. For Kinshasa, the process provided an opportunity both to co-opt Nkunda and weaken the FDLR, without having to seek a political solution to the crisis.
However, the backlash caused by the agreement prompted Kinshasa to distance itself from it. The international community voiced alarm over the displacement and human-rights abuses caused by the fighting between the mixed brigades and the FDLR. Hardliners within the army and Kabila's entourage perceived the agreement as the abandonment of North Kivu to Rwanda's
sphere of influence. Many within North Kivu, an important electoral base for Kabila, feared the agreement would strengthen the position of the Tutsis in the province, and were distressed that armed elements which had committed many human-rights abuses in the past were now allowed to operate under the aegis of the FARDC.
In the face of the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation, the clear strengthening of Nkunda's power in North Kivu and pressures from hardliners within its ranks but also from pro-Kinshasa elements within the mixed brigades, the army suspended the mixage process in late April. The head of the 8th Military Region of North Kivu, who had negotiated the January agreement for the DRC, was replaced by General Vainqueur Mayala, former commander of the Ituri Operational Zone, who had successfully negotiated disarmament agreements there. On 5 May, Nkunda denounced the failure of the process and threatened to withdraw his troops on the grounds that Kinshasa had not fully implemented the January agreement and failed to provide sufficient logistical support to the mixed brigades. The pro-Kinshasa and proNkunda elements within the brigades continued to co-exist uncomfortably until August, but both sides started preparing for a possible return to war. The announcement in mid August by the army's chief of staff, General Gabriel Amisi, that the military operations against the FDLR would be suspended – allegedly out of humanitarian concerns – marked the death of the mixage process. Nkunda duly pulled his troops out. Fighting between the FARDC and Nkunda loyalists broke out on 27 August in Masisi territory and spread to other areas in North Kivu. Though MONUC brokered a ceasefire on 6 September, which halted an offensive by pro-Nkunda forces against the town of Sake, armed confrontations between pro-Nkunda forces on the one side, and the army or FDLR and Mai Mai forces on the other, continued throughout September and October.
Fears of escalation
The military moves in North Kivu have raised concerns about a new regionalisation of the crisis. Rwanda has played a key role in past conflicts in the DRC and remains central to the peace process. Following the 2003 peace agreement, it repeatedly threatened to invade the DRC in order to resolve the FDLR problem. However, under
international pressure, diplomatic relations between the two countries have improved. Through the Tripartite Plus Joint Commission, Rwanda, the DRC, Uganda and Burundi have held meetings to address regional security problems. Bilateral and regional high-level meetings have defused tensions. In September, both countries agreed to establish a consultation mechanism, revive their joint border verification scheme and normalise diplomatic relations. The DRC agreed to prepare a detailed plan to disarm the FDLR, while Rwanda pledged not to provide support to rebel forces in the DRC and to halt assistance to more than 200 Congolese political refugees residing in Rwanda, including Mutebutsi. However, there are clear indications that Rwanda is at least providing logistical support to Nkunda by allowing him to recruit combatants inside the country. There are also reports that the Congolese army is again cooperating with the FDLR. While the FDLR at present is too weak to constitute a threat to Rwanda, renewed active support from the FARDC would change this.
Kinshasa's decision in mid October to suspend offensive operations against Nkunda has also defused tensions. On 22 September, Kabila set a deadline for Nkunda's troops to disarm by 15 October. The deadline has since been extended indefinitely and in late October the army extended its call for disarmament to other armed groups in North Kivu. Though Nkunda agreed to send 500 fighters to army reintegration camps, he maintains that he will only disband his forces when Kinshasa agrees to begin political negotiations. Nevertheless, the voluntary disarmament call has had some success in inducing Nkunda's fighters to defect. Three Mai Mai leaders have also responded positively and joined reintegration camps with their men. The FDLR, by contrast, maintains that it will resist any attempt to disarm its forces.
Though Kinshasa has bowed to international pressure to apply nonviolent means to resolve the crisis in North Kivu, the situation in the province remains explosive. Fighting between pro-Nkunda and FDLR forces has continued. Kinshasa remains intent on using military force to coerce factions to disarm: Army staff chief General Dieudonne Kayembe declared in late November that all peaceful means to resolve the crisis had been exhausted and that the army was preparing a plan, in cooperation with MONUC, for military engagement.
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